Crisis de los impuestos
En mayo, uno de los eventos en la economía mexicana en 2019 fue la amenaza de Trump a México. Si México no incluye a los inmigrantes de los países del sur, se deberían establecer tarifas para todos los productos importados de México.
La tarifa comenzará en el 5% y luego crecerá mensualmente hasta alcanzar el 25%. Al final, luego de alcanzar su primer mandato con los gobiernos del norte, México fue capaz de dar los rendimientos deseados por Donald Trump y evitó las tarifas.
No obstante, si se concretizara los aranceles de exportación. Las consecuencias tendrían sido una catástrofe sobre la economía de México.
Fitch elimina el «nivel de inversión» de Pemex
Casi en el mismo día que Estados Unidos amenazó con aranceles. Otro evento en la economía mexicana en 2019 fue que la agencia calificadora Fitch ha rebajado la valoración de Pemex a un grado que cancela su «nivel de inversión.
Es decir, el peligro de la inversión en la compañía es elevado, porque según la calificación del evaluador, las situaciones de la compañía están aumentando la probabilidad de incumplimiento. Por su parte, el incidente puede ser visto como algo aislado y no tiene mayor impacto en la economía de México.
Pese a lo cual, es bien sabido que las instituciones cuasinacionales están estrechamente involucradas en las cuentas del estado de México, especialmente en el proyecto Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Por lo tanto, la rebaja de la calificación de Pemex ofrece también las posibilidades de que las agencias calificadoras consideren bajar las calificaciones soberanas.
La economía mexicana en 2019: paquete económico y renuncia del ministro de hacienda
El mando de López Obrador presentó, en septiembre, su proposición de estimación para año fiscal siguiente. Dentre otros, en este año, este es un hecho que marcó a la economía mexicana, porque subrayó las políticas de seriedad que viene siguiendo Obrador.
Muchas agencias han recortado sus gastos y también han rediseñado sus gastos para utilizar los recursos para sus prioridades gubernamentales. Este es otro hecho de la economía mexicana en 2019.
En el inicio de julio, la inesperada noticia fue que la renuncia del entonces ministro de Hacienda, Carlos Urzúa, formaba parte del consejo de administración de AMLO. Aunque esta no es la primera exención del gobierno de gran envergadura, es la primera abdicación de cualquier jefe de secretaría.
La evolución del PIB y la economía mexicana
La evolución del PIB de este año todavía tiene muchas deficiencias. Por término medio, el desempeño del PIB del país es del 0%, es decir, al menos puede garantizar que la economía esté paralizada.
Para fines de este año, esto no es una buena señal y traerá mucha incertidumbre al próximo año. Debido a estos hechos en la economía mexicana, en los últimos meses, muchas instituciones han bajado sus pretensiones de aumento para los próximos años.
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