Crisis de los impuestos
En mayo, uno de los eventos en la economÃa mexicana en 2019 fue la amenaza de Trump a México. Si México no incluye a los inmigrantes de los paÃses del sur, se deberÃan establecer tarifas para todos los productos importados de México.
La tarifa comenzará en el 5% y luego crecerá mensualmente hasta alcanzar el 25%. Al final, luego de alcanzar su primer mandato con los gobiernos del norte, México fue capaz de dar los rendimientos deseados por Donald Trump y evitó las tarifas.
No obstante, si se concretizara los aranceles de exportación. Las consecuencias tendrÃan sido una catástrofe sobre la economÃa de México.
Fitch elimina el «nivel de inversión» de PemexÂ
Casi en el mismo dÃa que Estados Unidos amenazó con aranceles. Otro evento en la economÃa mexicana en 2019 fue que la agencia calificadora Fitch ha rebajado la valoración de Pemex a un grado que cancela su «nivel de inversión.
Es decir, el peligro de la inversión en la compañÃa es elevado, porque según la calificación del evaluador, las situaciones de la compañÃa están aumentando la probabilidad de incumplimiento. Por su parte, el incidente puede ser visto como algo aislado y no tiene mayor impacto en la economÃa de México.
Pese a lo cual, es bien sabido que las instituciones cuasinacionales están estrechamente involucradas en las cuentas del estado de México, especialmente en el proyecto Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Por lo tanto, la rebaja de la calificación de Pemex ofrece también las posibilidades de que las agencias calificadoras consideren bajar las calificaciones soberanas.
La economÃa mexicana en 2019: paquete económico y renuncia del ministro de hacienda
El mando de López Obrador presentó, en septiembre, su proposición de estimación para año fiscal siguiente. Dentre otros, en este año, este es un hecho que marcó a la economÃa mexicana, porque subrayó las polÃticas de seriedad que viene siguiendo Obrador.
Muchas agencias han recortado sus gastos y también han rediseñado sus gastos para utilizar los recursos para sus prioridades gubernamentales. Este es otro hecho de la economÃa mexicana en 2019.
En el inicio de julio, la inesperada noticia fue que la renuncia del entonces ministro de Hacienda, Carlos Urzúa, formaba parte del consejo de administración de AMLO. Aunque esta no es la primera exención del gobierno de gran envergadura, es la primera abdicación de cualquier jefe de secretarÃa.
La evolución del PIB y la economÃa mexicana
La evolución del PIB de este año todavÃa tiene muchas deficiencias. Por término medio, el desempeño del PIB del paÃs es del 0%, es decir, al menos puede garantizar que la economÃa esté paralizada.
Para fines de este año, esto no es una buena señal y traerá mucha incertidumbre al próximo año. Debido a estos hechos en la economÃa mexicana, en los últimos meses, muchas instituciones han bajado sus pretensiones de aumento para los próximos años.
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